Baseline surveys: the step that decides whether results can ever be proven

Every programme claims to improve something. Whether it can show that it did depends largely on a decision made before the first activity: whether anyone measured where things stood at the start.

What a baseline is for

A baseline survey records the situation before an intervention reaches its participants. It gives you the starting values for your indicators, a picture of who the participants are, and the reference point for targets. Without it, an endline survey can tell you where things are, but not how far they have moved or whether the programme had anything to do with it.

What a good baseline needs

• Clear questions and indicators first. Decide what you need to know and how it will be measured before drafting a questionnaire.
• A sound sample. It must represent the population of interest and be large enough for any subgroup you will report on, such as women, youth or particular counties.
• A tested questionnaire. Piloting finds unclear wording and questions that do not work in the local context.
• Comparability with the endline. Use the same definitions and methods later, or the comparison will not be valid.
• Data quality controls. Trained enumerators, supervision, spot checks and electronic data collection reduce errors.
• Ethical safeguards. Informed consent and protection of respondents' data.

From data to a usable baseline report

The report should state the starting value for every indicator, describe the sample and its limitations, and propose realistic targets. Those targets then feed directly into monitoring and evaluation, so the baseline is a working tool for the programme and not a file to be archived.

Common mistakes

• Collecting far too much data, so the important questions get less attention and quality drops.
• Defining indicators after the data has been collected.
• A sample too small to say anything about the groups the programme cares about.
• Running the baseline after activities have started, so the "before" is already partly "after".
• Giving no thought to the endline, so the two surveys cannot be compared.

When to do it

Plan the baseline as part of programme design, and run it before participants are reached. It is much cheaper to budget for it at the start than to try to reconstruct a starting point later.